After months in a black tunnel we have at last emerged, blinking, into the light. But it is not full steam ahead. We don't know what is along the track; perhaps another tunnel.
That is likely, according to advice from government advisers, academics and scientists, with their modelling systems, who provide regular short and long term 'forecasts'.
The latest is a warning of a possible 130,000 more coronavirus deaths. In April we were told there could be 200,000. That was their most pessimistic forecast - the worst case scenario, always certain to make the headlines.
An interesting word, forecast.
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| Nostradamus |
The most famous proponent was a Frenchman, Marcel Nostradamus who wrote a book, Les Prophéties in 1555,
since when it has been been in print almost continuously.
Better known these days is Francis Moore's Old Moores Almanack, first published in Britain in 1697.
You can buy the 2020 edition for a mere £2.99.
There have been soothsayers, prophets, for centuries, dispensing their wisdom.
Remember the gypsy fortune tellers in fairground booths?
And the man with the walrus moustache and top hat who paraded the streets with poster boards proclaiming The end of the world is nigh?
These days predicting the future is a more serious business. Weather forecasting, for example, now a major feature in television and radio programmes around he world.
That started in 650BC with the study of cloud patterns and astrology.
Today the Met Office employs the latest techniques and satellites but admits long term forecasting is difficult.
Forecasting has come a long way since Nostradamus but I am still not convinced of its reliability.
Back to coronavirus - the 200,000 and 130,000 deaths worst case scenario.
I hope they have got it wrong.
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