Coronavirus diary, Tuesday 26 May

After avoiding our hospitals being overwhelmed and seeing the rate of infections and deaths coming down, the emphasis now is on finding a solution to the coronavirus danger. And like every other aspect of the story so far it is shrouded in uncertainty.

Ambitious plans, based on calculations, perhaps even guesswork as no-one  pretends to know the answer. It all sounds very scientific; a three-point plan with neat media friendly soundbite headings: 
Test, Track and Trace. But before this came the idea of the herd system, letting the virus run free but that was quickly dropped and the three point plan devised.

Test: Testing has been a controversial subject from the early days with the first target of 100,000 a day not met, leading to disappointment and accusations of incompetence. 

The aim is to find out who has had the virus and where it is spreading. Success depends on the volume and accuracy of the figures. The pilot scheme involving the 6,000 Isle of Wight  residents appears to have fallen far short yet it is still due to be 'rolled out' across the country.

Track:The aim is to find 30,000 households in the UK to be regularly tested for evidence of immunity after infection. This should provide evidence of how the virus is moving through the population. It would also influence decisions on social distancing  vital to get the economy moving.

Trace: People who may be infected alert others who might be exposed, passing on the message by mobile phone. 

All this sounds perfectly reasonable, and the system devised and operated on a far larger scale in other countries has proved successful.

Doubts about the British effort  have  already been expressed  People have been remarkably obedient, compliant even, obeying the government's strict orders so far, but and there is no doubt that armies of volunteers needed to make the  system work must provide enough accurate information.

The plan's success would be followed by the discovery and production of a new vaccine on  which several countries are also engaged. In the UK, thousands of volunteers are testing a possible vaccine being developed at Oxford and we have been assured that if trial are successful we could have millions of  doses available by September.

Amazingly, according to a report today, all this might be a waste of time and effort.

VIRUS MAY VANISH TOO FAST FOR VACCINE TRIAL, says the headline. That's the view of  Professor Adrian Hill, co-leader of the Oxford University project. He says a trial of 10,000 people could return no result because not enough volunteers would be infected. If  so, the result would be useless, he insists.

So where do we go from here? It looks as though it is back to guesswork.