Saturday, 30 May 2020

Coronavirus diary, Saturday 30 May



The modest relaxation of lockdown rules has lifted the nation's spirit, more so in England with its bolder, more risky approach.

But there is not the same optimism over the twin crisis created by the pandemic - the economy.

Bold response - Chancellor Rishi Sunak
The Chancellor of the Exchequer's response to the gravest threat since the depression of the nineteen-thirties is his job protection - furlough scheme.

We are are, in his words, 'likely to face recession the likes of which we have not seen'. 'Yet this may happen.'
Billions of pounds of taxpayers' money has been pouring out to pay nearly ten million workers to stay at home. 

It is the most audacious economy saving move in the world. But the money tap has to be turned off sometime. The Chancellor  is shutting it off gradually, reducing meeting 80 percent of employees' pay -  up to £25,000 a month - to 60 percent by the end of October with employers then having to pay 23 percent. By that time, the total cost is an estimated £100 billion.

As with every aspect of the coronavirus conundrum, the result is uncertain. How many jobs will still be there? The aviation industry has already announced it is shedding 15,000 jobs. Even worse hit is the hospitality industry. Its 3.2 million employees - one tenth of the country's labour force - raised £39 billion tax revenue last year. 

The plight of small businesses is just as perilous, with a survey today indicating that two in five fear closure.

Another indication of the threat to the economy is the rush to claim unemployment benefits - the number in April, 2.1 million, was the highest ever.

Britain's economic rescue plan has been one of the government's rare successes, so far. Honestly, well presented and explained, it has been gratefully accepted by employers and employees. It deserves to succeed.

But, as with every aspect of this horrific pandemic, the health aspect is perhaps the decisive factor. Unless coronavirus is brought under control, if not defeated, continuing lockdowns would prolong the health crisis and decide the result of its twin crisis, the economy.





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